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CarMax (NYSE: KMX), an expert in used automobiles and a colleague of AutoNation (NYSE: AN), is up today nearly 14% in early-afternoon trading on spectacular volume. What's driving (pun intended!) the buying action? You guessed it...earnings. Revenues for the first quarter decreased 17%. Adjusting for items, CarMax earned $0.22 per share, and, according to my colleague Melly Alazraki, that figure simply annihilated earnings projections developed by the analysts.

Well, well, well...what to do now, right? CarMax is an interesting company in an interesting time. It sells used cars during a period when new cars aren't selling too well. We all know about the problems at Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (OTC: GMGMQ). But that isn't reason enough to put money down on this stock. Especially not after a rally like we're seeing today.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Lennar (NYSE: LEN) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's near-term liquidity profile is improved following the $400M debt issuance. The firm raised its target price to $12 from $11.
• Jefferies upgraded Rowan Companies (NYSE: RDC) to Buy from Hold as it believes jack-up drillers will continue to outperform deepwater names. The firm raised its target price to $27 from $20.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Financial (NASDAQ: FFIN) to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect more positive loan data for the Texas banks. The firm raised its target price on shares to $44 from $38.
• MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities.
• Brinker (NYSE: EAT) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer is seeing signs of a coming boom, but he's still being cautious here.

If you had to define the early cycle, if you had to outline what stocks should be soaring coming out of a recession into a boom and which ones should be faltering, you would have to say the action in this market in the last month is the quintessential behavioral pattern.

What are the components of the early cycle? First, it's the homebuilders. As is typical coming out of a recession, the stocks precede the bottom of housing. That's exactly what's happening with the lowest permits and highest affordability and best mortgage rates and massive inventory. Everywhere, except on Wall Street reporting, the bottom is bursting out. When you read the lead story in the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer, and it is all about the thousands of prospective homebuyers heading south to pick up condos and homes for half of what they were worth two years ago -- or even less -- and you know that virtually no one has broken ground in the Sunshine State in a year, you can bet that the bottom's actually behind us. This housing market has wiped out all but the most stable private builders and even the public ones are merging as we know from Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take). So, in the next cycle, you can see some profitability developing year over year even though the new homes don't have much margin because the foreclosed homes next door are going for a song. And don't believe this won't change the dynamic of future foreclosures. In most areas, rent is higher than the interest on mortgages, so you will find that second or third job needed to stay in your home. The incentive structure's radically different than a year ago.

Okay, maybe I'm too bearish, but I'm not sure I could possibly buy stock in CarMax (NYSE: KMX). The used-car dealer, a colleague of AutoNation (NYSE: AN), reported some good profit growth on Thursday, but I just don't like the guidance (or lack thereof) and the sales figures.

Most of all, though, I think buying CarMax now might be violating the buy-low-sell-high principle. Who knows, maybe I should just join the momentum party. The stock is up over 60% over the year-to-date period as of Thursday. See the dilemma a potential buyer would be in?

In the News:

This is the fourth in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.

This week I envisioned an eBay (NASADQ: EBAY) without Skype, eBay Motors and Paypal. Everything goes to the highest bidder, excluding handling and delivery of course.

While EBay might benefit from selling Skype and Motors, considering they might be worth more to others like Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and AutoNation Inc. (NYSE:AN), it should not sell PayPal unless it is contemplating a merger, since the acquiring company most likely would want PayPal to be an integral part of any deal.

Ebay is going through some growing pains right now but it is still a primary center of activity on the web. Although there are many disgruntled sellers that have left the site or been forced off because of the constant changes in the rules, it really has only one main rival and that is Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).

This is the second in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say, management, a platform for discussion.

Now that I have unloaded Skype from eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) in Tuesday's post (Serious Money: eBay should auction off Skype), it's time to move on to an asset that is not losing money, eBay Motors, but may be of more value to one of its competitors like Carmax (NYSE: KMX) or AutoNation (NYSE: AN).

It might also find a home with Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), its closest competitor in non-automotive categories. There is also the possibility that any number of auto-parts companies like AutoZone Inc (NYSE: AZO) or even the online car referral site Autobytel Inc. (NASDAQ: ABTL) would find eBay Motors a very compelling addition.

The Big Three American automakers might want to compete for this great asset. Since General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford Motors (NYSE: F) and Chrysler are having difficulty selling new cars, expanding used car sales would be enticing. The problem is they are basically broke and holding on to a thread for dear life. That is not the case for Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). Perhaps eBay Motors might find a place in their long term plans.

America's Car-Mart (NASDAQ: CRMT) operates 91 automotive dealerships, located primarily in the smaller urban markets of eight South-Central states. The dealerships focus on selling and providing the financing for basic, affordable cars, trucks and sport utility vehicles. Competitors include AutoNation (NYSE: AN) and CarMax (NYSE: KMX).

The company pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 45 cents and revenues of $75.7 million. Analysts had been looking for 38 cents and $73.8 million. The CEO expressed confidence in the firm's ability to maintain a positive sales trend, noting that Q1 retail unit sales had increased 25.8% (yr/yr) and Q1 same store revenues had risen 28.5% (yr/yr).

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.

You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.

First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.

We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?

America's Car-Mart (NASDAQ: CRMT) operates 91 automotive dealerships, located primarily in the smaller urban markets of eight South-Central states. The dealerships focus on selling and providing the financing for basic, affordable cars, trucks and sport utility vehicles. Competitors include AutoNation (NYSE: AN) and CarMax (NYSE: KMX).

The company pleased investors late last month, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of 47 cents and revenues of $76.5 million. Analysts had been looking for 29 cents and $69.2 million. The firm said it was seeing increased traffic at its dealerships, as the cost of living rose. CL King subsequently upgraded CRMT shares from "accumulate" to "strong buy", noting management's improved execution in sales, underwriting, collections and purchasing. The company was expected to do well, in the current economic environment.

Four well known CEOs weighed in on CNBC's Squawk Box, giving their particular insight on economic conditions one day after the Federal Reserve made yet another basis rate cut. Each of the four Chief Executives acknowledged the tough going in the economy, yet each also sought to inject a thread of optimistic patience into their commentary.

Mike Jackson, CEO, Auto Nation Inc. (NYSE: AN), came to the defense of Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke. While admitting that the chairman may have crawled blindly into what is now mostly economic turmoil, Jackson stated: "...I think he absolutely has it right now. He's got to be on full flight recession mode, and we'll worry about the dollar, and commodities and inflation later." Personally, I think Benanke should be making moves to protect the consumers and their dollars first, and let inflation take care of itself until the consumer sector is back up to speed.

Wilbur Ross, CEO, W L Ross & Co. Played the most obtuse card stating: "My own opinion is that it's just more of the same volatility." More of the same volatility? Yeah the economy is volatile ... DUH!

America's Car-Mart (NASDAQ: CRMT) operates 94 automotive dealerships, located primarily in the smaller urban markets of eight South-Central states. The dealerships focus on selling and providing the financing for basic, affordable cars, trucks and sport utility vehicles. Competitors include AutoNation (NYSE: AN) and CarMax (NYSE: KMX).

The company pleased investors last week, when it announced that closing underperforming branches and beefing up advertising initiatives generated fiscal Q3 EPS of 28 cents and revenues of $71.1 million. Wall Street analysts had been looking for 27 cents and $67.2 million. Looking ahead, the Jeffries analyst noted that the firm is able to internally fund its growth and is therefore not much impacted by the current credit crunch. Being focused on the used car market, the company was expected to be a relative outperformer in the current economic environment.

Five Chinese manufacturers are fielding display automobiles at the 2008 North American Auto Show. Amid a flurry of drab Chinese displays, misspelled promotional materials and one unscheduled auto tour through an ongoing press conference, China is presenting vehicles in the hope that the American auto-buying public will take them for real. I wonder how they feel about this at General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford Motors (NYSE: F), Toyota (NYSE: TM), and Chrysler.

This influx of Chinese auto manufacturers represents a 400% increase in their presence at the auto show over just two years ago. Should the big auto makers be scared yet? This blogger hardly thinks so, yet the above picture is the Geely-Beauty Leopard, an automobile of Chinese manufacture which has been marketed quite successfully in Europe since 2002.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Toll Brothers (TOL), COTT Corp (COT), Tim Hortons (THI) and Linktone (LTON) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Banc of America downgraded shares of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to Sell from Neutral, citing expected deterioration in luxury sales due to mortgage distress in the marketplace.

• COTT Corp (NYSE: COT) was cut to Hold from Buy at Stifel, citing the difficult macro environment and continued profit declines.

• Tim Hortons (NYSE: THI) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, citing valuation, and notes that fundamentals remain favorable.

• Montgomery cut Linktone (NASDAQ: LTON) to Hold from Buy, citing the sudden decline in its wireless VAS revenues following Q2 results...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Banc of America downgraded Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) and Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) to Neutral from Buy.
  

• Merrill Lynch cut AutoNation (NYSE: AN) and American Axle (NYSE: AXL) to Sell from Neutral.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: AutoNation (AN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Rare Hospitality (RARE) and ChoicePoint (CPS) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Goldman cut AutoNation (NYSE: AN) to Sell from Neutral based on potential for additional earnings shortfalls. The firm does not expect a sharp rebound in shares.

• Bear Stearns downgraded Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) to Peer Perform from Outperform following its acquisition of Rare Hospitality.

• Rare Hospitality (NASDAQ: RARE) was cut to Hold from Buy at Keybanc following the acquisition offer from Darden.

• ChoicePoint (NYSE: CPS) was cut to Reduce from Neutral at Suntrust, citing the difficult macro environment, which will impact revenue growth in its low-barrier commoditized non-insurance operations...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Alliance Holdings (NASDAQ: AHGP) was cut to Hold from Buy at AG Edwards.

• UBS downgraded SL Green Realty (NYSE: SLG) and Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) to Neutral from Buy.

• Morgan Stanley downgraded Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) to Equal Weight from Overweight.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).